Jubilee Under Pressure as Ol Kalou Defeat and Pauline Njoroge Exit Raise Fresh Questions

The Jubilee Party is facing renewed scrutiny over its political future following a crushing performance in the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election and the resignation of one of its senior officials, Pauline Njoroge. The twin developments have sparked debate about whether the once-dominant political outfit can remain relevant ahead of the 2027 General Election.

In a resignation statement shared on Monday, Pauline Njoroge announced that she was stepping down from the Jubilee Party’s National Executive Committee (NEC), where she served as Deputy Organizing Secretary, ending a 14-year association that began with The National Alliance (TNA) in 2012 before it evolved into Jubilee. She described the decision as “difficult but deeply considered,” saying she would now dedicate herself fully to the Linda Mwananchi movement. Njoroge expressed gratitude to former President Uhuru Kenyatta for mentoring her throughout her political journey but said she believes it is time to embrace “a new chapter” focused on governance, constitutionalism, accountability and citizen-centred leadership.

Her departure comes only days after Jubilee failed to make a significant impact in the Ol Kalou by-election, where the contest was dominated by the DCP and the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA). Jubilee party hardly got 200 votes the race where the winner got 35 440 votes, highlighting the party’s diminishing electoral influence in a constituency that attracted national political attention. The by-election outcome has reinforced concerns among political observers that the party has struggled to regain the grassroots strength it once enjoyed.

Despite the recent polls putting the current Deputy Party leader and presidential candidate Fred Matiang’i as the preferred presidential candidate in central Kenya region it also begs the question for the party’s effort to claim the lost glory. Taken together, the disappointing electoral showing and the resignation of a prominent party official have intensified speculation about Jubilee’s internal health. While Pauline Njoroge’s statement did not accuse the party of wrongdoing or reveal internal disputes, her decision to align herself with the Linda Mwananchi movement signals the growing attraction of emerging political formations for leaders seeking new platforms. Her praise of the movement’s agenda suggests that some politicians now see alternative alliances as offering greater political momentum.

Despite these setbacks, it would be premature to conclude that Jubilee is collapsing. The party still retains experienced leaders, elected officials and a recognizable national brand. However, the latest developments underscore the challenge facing the former ruling party: rebuilding its organizational structures, defining a clear political identity and convincing supporters that it remains a competitive force. Whether Jubilee can reverse its fortunes will likely depend on how it responds to these losses and positions itself in the rapidly evolving political landscape leading to the 2027 elections.